Solution to Texas Deficit Crisis

The following message will be seen on signs in Austin beginning Friday.  It is a simple summary of the mathematical reality of the Texas deficit:

Texas families with a half million dollar annual income and more make up the 1% of most wealthy in Texas. $2 million is their average annual income.  Under HB 354 the percentage of income they will pay in state and local taxes will go up from 3% to 8%.  The 20% of families in Texas who are the poorest will still pay a percentage of income that is 50% higher than the rich families, but this bill would balance the budget.  See http://www.texasflattax.com/.   Join us in Austin this Friday.



The cause and a solution for the Texas budget crisis

After many months, and pages of discussion on how to avoid the painful and damaging cuts in services and education in Texas, there is one conclusion that is repeated more and more often in many different settings throughout Texas. The regressive taxation system in Texas is to blame.  Here is one sign that will be seen around the Texas State Capitol during future gatherings:


Is there a more accurate way, in less than 14 words, to describe the cause for the pain and loss that the elderly, disabled, and children of Texas are facing?

The Texas budget would balance without cuts if the rich paid 2/3 of the effective tax rate paid by the poorest 20% of Texans.  See www.TexasFlatTax.com.

Report Card for Dallas ISD Board Budget Decisions: Graduation Rate Measurements 2012-2016

In preparation for the Dallas ISD Board Meeting on 3-24-11 the following report card has been prepared:

This report card is only half filled out.  It documents 5 separate measurements relating to the graduation rate in Dallas ISD. All 5 measurements showed significant progress over the past 5 years.  The question is, what effect will the decisions to be made by the DISD Board have on the next 5 years for the graduation rate?

The five measurements include:
1) Ninth Grade Bulge Reduction: Dallas has consistently had over 14,000 9th graders for over a decade while never having even 12,000 8th graders. This measurement shows the relationship between 8th grade enrollment and 9th grade enrollment with the simple formula of 8th grade enrollment divided by 9th grade enrollment.
2) As students are better prepared in middle schools, and more closely nurtured in 9th grade, they are now going on to 10th grade in record numbers.  Thus the second measurement, percent of last years 9th grade in 10th grade, is now the largest percentage possibly in all of DISD history, certainly in over 20 years!
3) The Promotion Rate is the percentage of 9th grade enrollment that is reflected in 12th grade enrollment.  It is the measurement used to designate "dropout factories" in the John Hopkins University Study from 2007. The number of such "Dropout Factories" in Dallas ISD is now the lowest in well over a decade.
4) The Graduation Rate used here is NOT to be confused by that measurement given out by TEA or the official rate given by DISD.  This graduation rate counts one group of students and their 4 year journey from 9th grade through graduation. It is the raw percentage of the full 9th grade enrollment as reflected in the number of diplomas given out in 4 years later.  It does not track students who transfer into and out of DISD.
5) The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) is based on the same four transitions that the Graduation Rate used above is, but the 4 transitions counted all happen within one 12 month period following four different groups of students. It is a much more timely measurement for what is happening now in a school or school district, and is a much more predictive measurement than the Graduation Rate because 3 of the four groups followed in the 4 transitions have yet to graduate.

Of all these 5 measurements I believe that the CPI  is the most valuable for use in tracking what is happening in our schools.  In the past 5 years this measurement has gone from 40.7% (after a 10 point drop from the previous year) to 64.6% this year, a wonderful increase indicating that things will continue to improve in the near future. These budget issues may end that improvement.

While I strongly believe the major responsibility rests with legislators in Austin for this disaster, and therefore created the www.TexasFlatTax.com web site, it is also certain that wise but difficult decisions to be made by the DISD Board could minimize the damage and hopefully continue the progress of the past 5 years.

Personal relationships by teachers with students are the primary ingredient for progress in raising the graduation rate. Hopefully the DISD Board decisions will reflect that reality and do all that is humanly possible to minimize teacher loss.  We will see.

Report Card for 82nd Texas Legislature to fill out on their budget management

Below is a report card form to be shared with Legislators to help them realize the progress they may destroy with planned budget cuts.  If they cut education as planned Texas will be watching these four measurements for graduation rate progress to see if they go up or back down to where Texas was 5 years ago.  We will not need to estimate what happens.  We will have the exact numbers.


Please copy the above report card form.  Share it with your legislators as you speak with them.  Speak of the damage the planned cuts will inflict on educational progress in Texas. Use this to illustrate that tragedy.

If you would like to see the spreadsheets used to create this graph, and tabulate the other data used on these pages, they can be found at http://www.studentmotivation.org/texas/.

Texas education budget cuts demand taxing systems be equalized for both poor and rich!

Saturday, March 12, 2011 was a wonderful day in Austin!  Over 10,000 Texans gathererd on the steps of the State Capitol to send a simple message to legislators, "NO Cuts!"  The 4,900,000 students in Texas public schools cannot thrive in today's world with fewer educational resources, especially in a state that is already one of the worst in the nation in education. Our students have been making wonderful progress, till now.

The above photo is a thumbnail to the photo album at http://www.mysanantonio.com/ with 26 photos from the rally. Notice the "NO CUTS!" signs.  The message on the back of those "NO CUTS!" signs is simple.  If HB 354 passes there will be no need for cuts. Study the details and links from http://www.texasflattax.com/ to better understand how the taxing systems in Texas can take a major step toward equal taxation for all income levels.  We cannot continue to tax the poor 12.2% of income while the most wealthy only pay 3%.  HB 354 will bring the wealthy up to almost 8%. The poor will still pay a 50% higher effective tax rate, but HB 354 is a major step in the right direction!

The 100,000 most wealthy families in Texas have average annual incomes of $1.9 to $2 million. The average additional tax on $2 million, under HB 354, would be $98,000.  That would do much more than save the 100,000 jobs in Texas that are planned to be lost. Almost all of the planned budget cuts would no longer be needed.

Would the level of hardship for such a $2 million a year income family equate to that of 49 Texas students (4,900,000 divided by 100,000) who will have to share their teacher with from 3 to 15 more students per class?

  

Texas must tax equally!

Think of the children!