Report Card for Dallas ISD Board Budget Decisions: Graduation Rate Measurements 2012-2016

In preparation for the Dallas ISD Board Meeting on 3-24-11 the following report card has been prepared:

This report card is only half filled out.  It documents 5 separate measurements relating to the graduation rate in Dallas ISD. All 5 measurements showed significant progress over the past 5 years.  The question is, what effect will the decisions to be made by the DISD Board have on the next 5 years for the graduation rate?

The five measurements include:
1) Ninth Grade Bulge Reduction: Dallas has consistently had over 14,000 9th graders for over a decade while never having even 12,000 8th graders. This measurement shows the relationship between 8th grade enrollment and 9th grade enrollment with the simple formula of 8th grade enrollment divided by 9th grade enrollment.
2) As students are better prepared in middle schools, and more closely nurtured in 9th grade, they are now going on to 10th grade in record numbers.  Thus the second measurement, percent of last years 9th grade in 10th grade, is now the largest percentage possibly in all of DISD history, certainly in over 20 years!
3) The Promotion Rate is the percentage of 9th grade enrollment that is reflected in 12th grade enrollment.  It is the measurement used to designate "dropout factories" in the John Hopkins University Study from 2007. The number of such "Dropout Factories" in Dallas ISD is now the lowest in well over a decade.
4) The Graduation Rate used here is NOT to be confused by that measurement given out by TEA or the official rate given by DISD.  This graduation rate counts one group of students and their 4 year journey from 9th grade through graduation. It is the raw percentage of the full 9th grade enrollment as reflected in the number of diplomas given out in 4 years later.  It does not track students who transfer into and out of DISD.
5) The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) is based on the same four transitions that the Graduation Rate used above is, but the 4 transitions counted all happen within one 12 month period following four different groups of students. It is a much more timely measurement for what is happening now in a school or school district, and is a much more predictive measurement than the Graduation Rate because 3 of the four groups followed in the 4 transitions have yet to graduate.

Of all these 5 measurements I believe that the CPI  is the most valuable for use in tracking what is happening in our schools.  In the past 5 years this measurement has gone from 40.7% (after a 10 point drop from the previous year) to 64.6% this year, a wonderful increase indicating that things will continue to improve in the near future. These budget issues may end that improvement.

While I strongly believe the major responsibility rests with legislators in Austin for this disaster, and therefore created the www.TexasFlatTax.com web site, it is also certain that wise but difficult decisions to be made by the DISD Board could minimize the damage and hopefully continue the progress of the past 5 years.

Personal relationships by teachers with students are the primary ingredient for progress in raising the graduation rate. Hopefully the DISD Board decisions will reflect that reality and do all that is humanly possible to minimize teacher loss.  We will see.